Nassim nicholas taleb le cygne noir epub

 

    The Black Swan ebook epub/pdf/prc/mobi/azw3 download for Kindle, Mobile, Tablet Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | pertucenrine.tk: Books .. pertucenrine.tk - Le cygne noir: La puissance de l'imprévisible - Nassim Nicholas. Antifragile - Nassim Nicholas Taleb PDF - EPUB - AudioBook Antifragile is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Le Cygne noir. Dans le cas de Peter Thiel, lisez-le deux fois ou pour?tre tout? fait s?r du Nassim Nicholas Taleb, auteur du Cygne noir?crit? partir de cours.

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    Nassim Nicholas Taleb Le Cygne Noir Epub

    Skin in the Game - Nassim Nicholas Taleb PDF - EPUB - AudioBook Download Free - Audiobooks libero. In his most provocative and practical book yet, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows that skin in the game, Le Cygne noir. [PDF] Le cygne noir: La puissance de l'imprévisible Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Le cygne noir: La puissance de l'imprévisible Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Nassim-Nicholas Taleb (Auteur) Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, Lisez le avec Kobo by Fnac Ein Mann für alle Märkte - ePub Wie ich das Casino und den Markt geschlagen habe Le cygne noir, prévoir l'imprévisible - broché.

    The next Bill Gates will not build an operating system The next Larry Page or Sergey Brin won t make a search engine And the next Mark Zuckerberg won t create a social network If you are copying these guys, you aren t learning from them. It s easier to copy a model than to make something new doing what we al I thoroughly enjoyed the book even if I have found myself in violent disagreement with many of its thoughts The book opens up with these words Every moment in business happens only once. It s easier to copy a model than to make something new doing what we already know how to do takes the world from 1 to n, addingof something familiar But every time we create something new, we go from 0 to 1 The act of creation is singular, as is the moment of creation, and the res Ch 1 The challenge of the the futureThe first chapter is an introductory piece on the creation of new value going from Unless you are one of those Twitter jerkoffs who is tweeting about your startup or worse your insights on the latest VC trends, you will probably want to wear a disguise when procuring a copy of this book But it s totally worth it.

    Automatyczne logowanie. Not only is he riding high in the bestseller lists, his theory of black swan events has become the most seductive guide to our uncertain times. There is more courage and heroism in defying the human impulse, in taking the purposeful and painful steps to prepare for the unimaginable.

    This combination of low predictability and large impact makes the Black Swan a great puzzle; but that is not yet the core concern of this book. Add to this phenomenon the fact that we tend to act as if it does not exist! I don't mean just you, your cousin Joey, and me, but almost all "social scientists" who, for over a century, have operated under the false belief that their tools could measure uncertainty.

    For the applications of the sciences of uncertainty to real-world problems has had ridiculous effects; I have been privileged to see it in finance and economics. Go ask your portfolio manager for his definition of "risk," and odds are that he will supply you with a measure that excludes the possibility of the Black Swan-hence one that has no better predictive value for assessing the total risks than astrology we will see how they dress up the intellectual fraud with mathematics.

    THE BLACK SWAN TALEB EPUB DOWNLOAD

    This problem is endemic in social matters. The central idea of this book concerns our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly the large deviations: Why do we, scientists or nonscientists, hotshots or regular Joes, tend to see the pennies instead of the dollars? Why do we keep focusing on the minutiae, not the possible significant large events, in spite of the obvious evidence of their huge influence?

    And, if you follow my argument, why does reading the newspaper actually decrease your knowledge of the world? It is easy to see that life is the cumulative effect of a handful of significant shocks. It is not so hard to identify the role of Black Swans, from your armchair or bar stool. Look into your own existence. Count the significant events, the technological changes, and the inventions that have taken place in our environment since you were born and compare them to what was expected before their advent.

    How many of them came on a schedule? Look into your own personal life, to your choice of profession, say, or meeting your mate, your exile from your country of origin, the betrayals you faced, your sudden enrichment or impoverishment. How often did these things occur according to plan?

    Think of the terrorist attack of September 11, If such a possibility were deemed worthy of attention, fighter planes would have circled the sky above the twin towers, airplanes would have had locked bulletproof doors, and the attack would not have taken place, period.

    Something else might have taken place. I don't know.

    Isn't it strange to see an event happening precisely because it was not supposed to happen? What kind of defense do we have against that?

    [PDF / Epub] ☁ Zero to One Author Peter Thiel – Thomashillier.co.uk

    Whatever you come to know that New York is an easy terrorist target, for instance may become inconsequential if your enemy knows that you know it. It may be odd that, in such a strategic game, what you know can be truly inconsequential.

    Think about the "secret recipe" to making a killing in the restaurant business. If it were known and obvious, then someone next door would have already come up with the idea and it would have become generic.

    (Epub Kindle) Zero to One: How to Build the Future Read online by biletasdds43 - Issuu

    The central idea of this book concerns our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly the large deviations: Why do we, scientists or nonscientists, hotshots or regular Joes, tend to see the pennies instead of the dollars?

    Why do we keep focusing on the minutiae, not the possible significant large events, in spite of the obvious evidence of their huge influence?

    And, if you follow my argument, why does reading the newspaper actually decrease your knowledge of the world? It is easy to see that life is the cumulative effect of a handful of significant shocks. It is not so hard to identify the role of Black Swans, from your armchair or bar stool. Look into your own existence.

    Count the significant events, the technological changes, and the inventions that have taken place in our environment since you were born and compare them to what was expected before their advent. How many of them came on a schedule?

    Look into your own personal life, to your choice of profession, say, or meeting your mate, your exile from your country of origin, the betrayals you faced, your sudden enrichment or impoverishment. How often did these things occur according to plan? Think of the terrorist attack of September 11, If such a possibility were deemed worthy of attention, fighter planes would have circled the sky above the twin towers, airplanes would have had locked bulletproof doors, and the attack would not have taken place, period.

    Something else might have taken place. I don't know. Isn't it strange to see an event happening precisely because it was not supposed to happen? What kind of defense do we have against that? Whatever you come to know that New York is an easy terrorist target, for instance may become inconsequential if your enemy knows that you know it.

    It may be odd that, in such a strategic game, what you know can be truly inconsequential.

    Think about the "secret recipe" to making a killing in the restaurant business. If it were known and obvious, then someone next door would have already come up with the idea and it would have become generic. The next killing in the restaurant industry needs to be an idea that is not easily conceived of by the current population of restaurateurs. It has to be at some distance from expectations. The more unexpected the success of such a venture, the smaller the number of competitors, and the more successful the entrepreneur who implements the idea.

    The same applies to the shoe and the book businesses-or any kind of entrepreneurship. The same applies to scientific theories-nobody has interest in listening to trivialities. The payoff of a human venture is, in general, inversely proportional to what it is expected to be. What you know cannot really hurt you. Experts and "Empty Suits" The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history, given the share of these events in the dynamics of events.

    But we act as though we are able to predict historical events, or, even worse, as if we are able to change the course of history.

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